COVID-19 – The Tipping Point

What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?

First posted on April 8, 2020

A quick look at the distribution of SARS 2 cases around southern Europe shows that viral circulation is widespread. [1] Higher incidence may be explained (at least in part) by the old adage “seek, and thou shall find”. Translated into technospeak, it’s ascertainment bias.[2] 

If you test, test, test, you will find. [3] Epidemics are no strangers to ascertainment bias. In the spring of 1918, military censorship ensured that most information relating to a mysterious acute respiratory syndrome was suppressed. Except for places like Spain, which had not joined the war and had no censorship. So selective release of information made it look like most cases came from the Iberian peninsula – hence the name “Spanish flu”.