Do Lockdowns work?

The Long read

Restrictions,  lockdowns and travel measures changed over 200 times in 2020. No one could keep up with the changes. By the time one step had come in, it was onto the next. For example, the rules on going out – to a pub or a restaurant - were changed 20 times up to September 2020. Many didn’t know the rules and didn’t care. Some statements like “closing the borders with Wales” appeared to be taken from an episode of BBC’s smash surreal hit Fawlty Towers.

In the Covid Inquiry, the former Health Secretary Matt Hancock's position was clear: we need to lock down harder and faster next time: “but it is not nearly as important as getting the doctrine right so in future, we're ready to suppress a pandemic, unless the costs of lockdown are greater than the costs that the pandemic would bring.” 

This is quite a scary thought, but throughout this book, we’ve tried to explain the issues, and this time, we’ll ask whether lockdowns worked to reduce hospitalisations and, significantly, deaths.

In March…