Trust the Evidence

Trust the Evidence

Excess deaths - Three Years On

Unravelling the confusion

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Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson
Aug 09, 2025
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We initiated TTE by inquiring whether anyone had observed the sustained increase in deaths in England. On 29 July 2022, there were 11,013 deaths, 18% above the five-year average.

Why it's time to Investigate Excess Deaths in England and Wales

Why it's time to Investigate Excess Deaths in England and Wales

Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson
·
August 9, 2022
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In the pandemic, there wasn't a time when we weren’t swimming in death data blamed on Covid. However, in the last three years, analysis of the causes of death has dropped off the radar. Ministers have dodged MPs’ questions through escape and evasion at Westminster.

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After the usual winter increase, which peaked in week 3 with ​​14,679 deaths, week 30 of 2025 saw 9,816 deaths registered. The ONS, with its new methods for estimating excess deaths, reports this is 981 fewer than expected or 9.1% lower.

The ONS now has a dashboard for Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, with results for deaths by selected causes. However, it seems the ONS thinks the only cause of deaths worth displaying is influenza or pneumonia or coronavirus.

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