Trust the Evidence

Trust the Evidence

Excess Deaths - yet again

In the deluge of data, is anyone asking any questions?

Carl Heneghan's avatar
Tom Jefferson's avatar
Carl Heneghan and Tom Jefferson
Nov 01, 2022
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Two months ago, we launched Trust the Evidence with an analysis of ‘Why it's time to Investigate Excess Deaths.

This week's deaths remained substantially above the 5-year average.

In the week ending 21 October (Week 42), 11,938 deaths were registered in England and Wales - 16.8 per cent above the 5-year average.  

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The ONS response is, ‘the further we move away from the five years in question, the less robust the measure is because of changes in population numbers, age and structure.’ This is an unacceptable answer as it does nothing to address the problem of what is causing the excess. However, the maths is too complicated to analyse, so let's move on. Yet the Nightingale graph shows that excess deaths are the highest - yet again - of any of the last eight years. 

What are the functions of the UKHSA in all this -  if no one does anything when the data is consistently abnormal? 

Sarah Knapton pointed out the same point in Saturday’s Telegraph. 

‘Yet there is largely silence from the Governme…

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