Smokescreens - Part 1

F word “Flu” deaths

Health services of rich countries are engulfed in what the British media call the “winter crisis” every year. This essentially consists of an acute disproportion between demand and offer. Too many people report sick for too few resources. Hospitals quickly get overwhelmed, and the media feeds on the scenes of people lying on trolleys in corridors or, even worse, on the floor or any available space.

The timing of such winter crises varies in the Northern Hemisphere, but they usually occur on either side of Christmas.

Some governments throw money at the crisis; others play it down until the situation eases as winter recedes, as does the media circus and the consequent political football. Health ministers and bureaucrats survive to bumble through for a while longer.

There are some extraordinary aspects of this recurring situation. The first is that no one seems to have carried out a serious study of the causes, which our instinct tells us are complex and not single (instinct, not evidence …