The causes of the excess deaths

How the BBC jumped to conclusions.

As 2022 ends, the yearly death totals are rolled out by various media outlets as a source of concern. 

The Times reports 1,000 excess deaths each week as the NHS buckles, with 656,735 UK deaths in the last year. Using the pre covid 5-year average, they note, ‘Fifty thousand more people died last year than normal.’

The BBC reported that 9 per cent more people died in 2022 than in 2019. Within hours of the reports of the deaths, they concluded the ‘data indicates pandemic effects on health and NHS pressures are among the leading explanations.’

No need then for painstaking epidemiology, assessment of confounders and determination of causation as opposed to an association. The BBC has the answer. But does it?

One of their explanations  is the ‘Lasting effect of pandemic.’ Pointing to ‘a number of studies that found people are more likely to have heart problems and strokes.’

All three studies cited are retrospective: the first is a review of those admitted to the hospital in 2020 (mean follow-u…