The Infection Fatality Ratio: the Errors in the Early Estimates

Recent data shows that early estimates of fatality in the covid pandemic over-predicted deaths by as much as tenfold in younger populations.

The Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) estimates the percentage deaths in all those with an infection: the detected (cases) and those with undetected disease (asymptomatic and the not-tested group).

The IFR is used to model the estimated number of deaths in the population at large. If it's a large number approaching one percent, then the modelled outputs can…