The predictable, unpredictability of respiratory pathogens

What surveillance tells us about seasonal respiratory illnesses

Winter is entrenching itself in the Northern Hemisphere, and as we approach the equinox, the predictable respiratory pathogens are taking hold. 

The National Influenza and COVID-19 report monitors seasonal respiratory illnesses. The latest report summarises surveillance systems in England from week 43 (between 23 and 29 October 2023).

• SARS-CoV-2 positivity decreased to 8.7% compared to 9.7% in the previous week. 

• Positivity for RSV is on the increase at  8.7%,

  RSV usually causes mild, cold-like symptoms, but it can be serious, particularly in infants and older adults. It is worth noting the highest RSV positivity was seen in those aged under five years old at 34%. 

• ​​Rhinovirus - which seems to stick around whatever - positivity decreased to 15%, with the highest positivity seen in children under five years old at 25%. 

  While rhinovirus is the most common cause of the common cold, it can cause severe disease in those with a weakened immune system.

• Primary care surveillance reports influenza-…