UK Covid-19 Inquiry - Module 1: The resilience and preparedness of the United Kingdom

Chapter 4 An Effective Strategy

In the words of the report: 

Superficially, this looks clear and in logical order. 

Let’s start with the 2011 preparedness plan. The Inquiry correctly identifies the focus on a single pathogen (influenza) as one reason for its irrelevance. We would qualify that as the main reason, together with the underlying box thinking.

The UK 2011 plan was inspired by the US HHS Pandemic plan, which contained several “Critical assumptions.”

Specific assumptions for antiviral drugs include: “Treatment with a neuraminidase inhibitor (oseltamivir [Tamiflu®] or zanamivir [Relenza®]) will be effective in decreasing risk of pneumonia, will decrease hospitalization by about half (as shown for interpandemic influenza), and will also decrease mortality.”

The Hallett report fails to mention that the plan's essence was based on the mass use of antivirals (stockpiled at great public expense) to “hold the fort” until influenza pandemic vaccines became available. In the 2009 influenza pandemic, neither was needed an…