Update on Excess Deaths

TTE Chart of the Week ending 28 April 2023:

In the week ending 28 April 2023 (Week 17), 12,152 deaths were registered in England and Wales.

The Florence Nightingale Diagram shows where this week sits in relation to previous years. The ONS report that this week the total number of deaths above the 5-year average is 13.8%.

Now we’ve had a lot of toing and froing about the best way to measure the excess, but we think a problem with the baseline average can’t fully explain the higher excess in private homes (not nursing homes, people’s own homes).

The number of deaths was 23.3 per cent above the five-year average in private homes (646 excess deaths), 10.7 per cent in hospitals (521 excess deaths), 8.4% in care homes (186 excess deaths) and 14.3% in other settings (117 excess deaths).

In week 17, 3.8% of the deaths involved covid (459). Of these, 301 deaths (66%) had this recorded as the underlying cause of death. Assuming the data show active cases in which covid played a part, this indicates low-level, constant transmission.

There’s…