Clearing the air around influenza

The CDC is warning - should we take heed?

Dear readers, looking at your recent responses to our posts, especially the letter to the CDC, we realised that some of you have not read the backposts on influenza, ILI and sundry related topics.

As the US CDC is currently warning people of a heightened state of alert on this, that and the other forms of influenza plagues, would you like us to summarise in simple terms the basics of influenza: epidemiology, transmission and burden?

When Tom started on his Cochrane reviews of influenza vaccines, antivirals and physical interventions, he got to the point when he realised that he was looking at the bottom end first: what works?

What he should have done first is tried to answer the question: what is the threat?

It was only after a while he realised his mistake and started looking at the epidemiology, the impact and burden. But by that stage publishing anything which deviated from the “influenza single narrative death threat story, we are all going to die, because modellers say so” had become very difficult.

So he kept an eye on the burden but updated his Cochrane reviews, all showing modest or no benefit. Which was the flip side of reality: rarity and relatively benign nature of the illness.

Having just looked under the bonnet of the CDC warning, methinks it’s time.

What say you?

This post was written by an old geezer who agrees with CDC: we are all going to die. The problem is working out where, when and how.