Hills’s Confusion
It’s all Smoke and Mirrors
Our reader Hills commented on the third and last part of the Avian Influenza Trilogy last week, stating he’s “very confused.”
We discussed the thoughtful content of this post. The confusion arises from public servants spending our cash non-transparently for situations or scenarios that will never see the vaccine as a successful pandemic intervention.
We considered there are four scenarios under which a vaccine might be deployed:
Scenario 1: (a la Neil Ferguson/Ira Longini 2005 modelling strategy). Localised outbreak(s), heavy urgent intervention with stockpiled antivirals with arrival on the scene of current strain - off the shelf - just-in-time vaccines.
Scenario 2: Localised outbreak(s), heavy urgent intervention with stockpiled antivirals with sometime later arrival on the scene of a bespoke pandemic strain vaccine.
Scenario 3: A widespread outbreak from birds to humans, major incidents in various foci, and heavy, urgent intervention with stockpiled antivirals, with a bespoke pandemic strain vaccine arriving on the scene sometime later.
Scenario 4 “Just in case” vaccination in the absence of an outbreak of those with no contraindications or advisories who are at perceived risk to the vaccine against a background of increased threat.
All of these scenarios assume that both antivirals (such as neuraminidase inhibitors) and H5 vaccines, whether bespoke or off the UKHSA’s shelves, can stop transmission and ameliorate the severe forms of influenza, thereby avoiding complications or deaths—something for which there is no evidence.
No clinical trials we know of show that, and in the case of H5 vaccines, as we have explained, the assumptions are based on other assumptions that are based on thin air. Inactivated influenza vaccines, whether adjuvanted or not, do not prevent transmission, so extrapolating from such a shaky foundation is a recipe for fleecing the taxpayer and pretending to be prepared. All this is quite apart from the threat, which is remote. It’s all smoke and mirrors, folks, and there is no substance or evidence here.
Hence Hills’s confusion.
This post was written by two old geezers who follow the regulatory evidence on antivirals and “pandemic” influenza vaccines.
Glenn Miller is still missing, and there's more chance of finding him than of getting a parliament that cannot distinguish between a willy and a wendy to look into this. If the world survives historians will look at these few years and not believe that the populace could have fallen for it; they'll probably think that everyone was painted with woad and distracted with blue beads and little mirrors - and they won't be far out. I'm disappointed that the race still won't wake up even though yourselves and others on X are explaining what's going on. I wonder if the plan was to exterminate all who were too dozy to see the danger - an update on "accidents are God's way of getting rid of stupid people.
Sorry to rant, been trying to "communicate" with BT and Sky and it's left me a bit jaundiced.
Thankyou TTE for bothering to respond so kindly & in depth & thanks to everyone commentating for making me feel I am not alone.
If we have rubbed along with a ‘flu’ shot every year for many years that may or may not have helped those who are vulnerable, then that’s to be welcomed & so many folks now expect it to appear as the summer turns to autumn. Is that a sign of a sophisticated society?
My 84 year old friend suggested to me yesterday that I seemed to have had some bad colds recently & definitely should get the flu shot (I look after my 2 year old grandchild every month who goes to nursery 3 days a week & has a permanent cold)….. maybe I should. Maybe not.
I am extremely alarmed however, by the profligate spending based on invisible evidence that we have a pandemic waiting in the wings based in an avian flu virus that doesn’t (ATM) appear to be jumping species. I agree that we should all be prepared (& be prepared for the shortage of eggs for manufacturing & eating).
But does stockpiling 5.5 billion doses in preparation really add up? Who are the beneficiaries? Hum.
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