Is it a Scenario or a Prediction?

Interpreting modelling speak

In December 2021, the former Chief Scientific Advisor Patrick Vallance publicly defended modellers and their modelling in The Times and on the government’s official website.

He considered monitoring clinical data as ‘trying to get a good fix on the severity of disease caused by Omicron.’ But Vallance was already at odds with the data. Nine days earlier, in the Telegraph, TTE geezers had written that ‘We're almost certainly overreacting to the Omicron variant:’ South African data reported fewer intensive care patients, less severe disease, and shorter hospital stays.

Sir (now Lord) Patrick was at pains to impress on the populace that “epidemiological modellers have an unenviable task.’ He confirmed what we all know: ‘Modellers always have to make assumptions.’

‘They will make assumptions about vaccine effectiveness, they will model different levels of viral transmission, mixing patterns and different levels of disease severity. The range of assumptions modelled can be very broad,’ he said.