Trust the Evidence

Trust the Evidence

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Trust the Evidence
Trust the Evidence
Is it a Scenario or a Prediction?

Is it a Scenario or a Prediction?

Interpreting modelling speak

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Carl Heneghan
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Tom Jefferson
Nov 28, 2024
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Is it a Scenario or a Prediction?
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In December 2021, the former Chief Scientific Advisor Patrick Vallance publicly defended modellers and their modelling in The Times and on the government’s official website.

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He considered monitoring clinical data as ‘trying to get a good fix on the severity of disease caused by Omicron.’ But Vallance was already at odds with the data. Nine days earlier, …

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