Every time reference is made to mr vallance and his advice during the plandemic, or to the advice of sage, I find myself feeling physically sick. To think none of these people are serving time right now in one of hms jails for crimes against humanity. Quite the contrary, they were catapulted to higher levels of incompetence. Whatever happened to integrity, honesty, morality in the UK? We are witnessing its demise one day at a time. As Tess Lawrie asked one other scientist she worked with and wrote a paper with, how he slept at night, after he made an abrupt turn and refused to sign off on their research.
Sir (now Lord) Vallance and his 'scenarios not predictions' is a monument to the fact that all these 'not predictions, only scenarios' excuses were used to fuel the fear porn in the MSM while providing politicians with a 'scientific'e excuse for doing what they did.
If Sir (now Lord) Vallance had provided a 'scenario' in which he'd not made up that curve in the chart printed above but just drawn a line from the 20.-27th Sept, he'd have been practically 'prediction' the development of actual cases as shown in the orange line. So he missed out on being a 'Hero' for scientific modellers ... shame, innit ...
One could really add to the confusion by discussing the difference between a “prediction” and a “forecast”. Some fields use them interchangeably, others will differentiate them.
Thank you for continuous eye openers. There are doctors and scientists around the world who have learned through research or observation that these shots are dangerous and have faulty risk benefit statistical information. I’m sure there are many many more but they see what has happened to others that were brave and spoke out ergo have stayed quiet. Even in my own situation, doctors I’ve seen through being injured are aware because of the uptick in injured patients but they all say they can’t do anything. The pharmaceutical industry has great wealth, power and influence. I don’t know if it’s worth all the doctors going solo with their info, form a collaboration as an entity of strength. The U.K has Angus Delgleish, Aseem Maholtra, Neil Fenton and I’m sure others. Maybe form a group in each country. The groups have meetings about strategies. I know I’m being optimistic and perhaps naive but I hate that pharma and their acolytes can seek and destroy those who dare speak out. Look what’s happening to Dr. Phillip Buckhaults, Kevin McKerran, Jay Bhattacharya, Bryam Bridle, David Spiecher, Jessica Rose, Martin Kulldorff, Tom Jefferson, Carl Heneghan and more. Pharma can zero in on one easily but a group maybe a little more difficult.
Step back one. If Sir/Lord Vallance had listened to the clinical arguments that considered the severe consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection (aka Covid-19) were due to a cytokine storm; that such a storm was precipitated by an immune response to the spike protein; and that the "vaccines" made the body produce selfsame spike protein, would it not become immediately apparent that vaccines could not prevent Covid-19 but might be equally good as the infection itself in producing it? In other words, vaccinating to prevent serious illness is an oxymoron. Any scenarios/prophesies/guesses become irrelevant.
Vallance’s graph was the most unscientific twaddle I have ever seen. “Cases doubled over the last five days - if it continues at that rate, it will hit 50,000 a day by the end of November”, or words to that effect. Why stop there, Sir Patrick? Ten days more, and it would be 200,000 cases a day. And by the end of January, the number of daily cases would exceed the UK population.
I can think of only 2 explanations for such a presentation:
1. Vallance suffers from dyscalculia
2. He was deliberately trying to “scare the pants” off the British people, to use a Hancockism.
If 1, he should be admired for what he has achieved in his professional life, but kept well away from public discourse and decision-making. If 2, he should be barred from public office and have his peerage rescinded.
Mathematical modelling in epidemiology does not have the long-standing relationship that it does in the physical sciences and engineering. So, I’m not surprised at the (many) abuses that have occurred. As someone who periodically uses mathematical models, the failure in epidemic predictions/scenarios/forecasts is not a new problem. For me, modelling claims made by decision-makers have never possessed any credibility; it’s too easy for major misunderstandings to occur, by both modellers and model consumers. Releasing simulation results to the public -- in particular -- should be avoided at all costs.
Vallance came to my attention when he said on MSM that the only way to salvation lay in vaccination - because unfortunately antibody levels dropped alarmingly after infection/recovery from the new, novel and deadly disease.
What to believe? Even O level biology teaches (maybe taught) that antibody levels always drop after dealing with viral infection.
The same man also became alarmed that more than 50% of EFL footballers were reluctant to get jabbed, not setting a good example you see - and he gave them and the PFA a special talk - pour encourager les autres.
Consider since the "vaccine roll out" how many professional footballers are succumbing to injuries (never mind collapsing) and taking longer to recover, micro clots anyone?
The medics/insurers at the clubs know the medical history of their players inside out. They simply don't know the cause of the increase... It would though be very interesting to know how many "excess injuries" are prevalent amongst players who have been jabbed.
Apologies for going off topic, Vallance apart. I've raised this question before but Omerta rules.
"‘They will make assumptions about vaccine effectiveness, they will model different levels of viral transmission, mixing patterns and different levels of disease severity. The range of assumptions modelled can be very broad,’ he said."
=
........ here are some numbers I just made up ........
"From 2012 to 2018, (Patrick Vallence) was President of Research and Development (R&D) at the global pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)." Wikipedia
"..... GSK angles to position itself as the world’s “leading vaccines company” over next decade........ Shingles vaccine Shingrix currently forms GSK’s “crown jewel” in those efforts, but the company is also banking on boosted sales from its meningitis franchise, and its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) contender RSVPreF3 recently turned out strong phase 3 results, putting it [neck-and-neck](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gsk-hits-back-high-stakes-rsv-vaccine-game-posting-phase-3-data-suggest-it-has-edge-pfizer) with a would-be rival from Pfizer (2022.)"
Here in Australia, a number of migratory birds (Latham's Snipe) recently flew in from Japan. From a few scattered early arrivals, the numbers increased, and the rate of increase increased, over the next couple weeks. Alarmed, the modellers got out their Excel spreadsheets. They concluded that there was a rapidly-escalating snipe invasion, and that our entire country was under threat. It was calculated that the vast number of bird droppings would overwhelm the municipal waste disposal systems, destroy waterways and make roads impassable, leading to food shortages and epidemic diseases. The modellers' logic was impeccable. The only problem was, that they knew nothing whatsoever about the actual behaviour patterns of migratory birds.
The Covid years (2020-2923) were a stress test for modern democratic governments. Confusion about models, scenarios, forecasts, and predictions was repeated daily, week after week. The sky is falling – close the schools! During the panic, politicians and their advisors seemed unable to learn anything. As one of the geezers pointed out, in 2020 in Italy, after increasing, cases fell off in the way Farr described in 1840. The panic also revealed the destructive force of media hysteria. Thousands became experts in respiratory illness. Sociologists joined the chorus. The confusion over scenarios, models, computer models, predictions, and forecasts is crucial to a culture adverse to evidence and measurement. The facts can be anything you want to use in your scenario, model, and forecast. Well, it wasn’t a prediction; it was a scenario. Whatever, it’s a crisis, and you must do what we tell you. Accountability is impossible without agreement about the evidence. No agreement, no evidence. The confusion is the point.
The best bit is when they changed the definitions of things like vaccination and immunity- that way they got to keep the same words but change the meaning which was cunning.
Or when they crucified Bhattacharya, Gupta and Kulldorf for talking about herd immunity…but then when they wanted people to believe there was a threshold of population vaccination above which people could consider themselves ‘safe’ and ‘the rules’ eased, they talked of ‘population immunity’ which was the same thing as herd immunity but in people.
well said Helen; we must not let folks forget; you say all this very well
changing the definition of "vaccines" to mean untested, experimental gene-encoding therapy; language endlessly changed as Orwell wrote about so long ago; but so entirely of today ...........
all the deliberate wickedness that was perpetrated; I see Jay B nominated for a post in a new administration; we do hope that eventuates;
Presumably the same applies to CO2 Global Warming on steroids?!
Every time reference is made to mr vallance and his advice during the plandemic, or to the advice of sage, I find myself feeling physically sick. To think none of these people are serving time right now in one of hms jails for crimes against humanity. Quite the contrary, they were catapulted to higher levels of incompetence. Whatever happened to integrity, honesty, morality in the UK? We are witnessing its demise one day at a time. As Tess Lawrie asked one other scientist she worked with and wrote a paper with, how he slept at night, after he made an abrupt turn and refused to sign off on their research.
Furthermore "cases" were hugely exaggerated by the ridiculous amplification factors used in PCR tests.
Sir (now Lord) Vallance and his 'scenarios not predictions' is a monument to the fact that all these 'not predictions, only scenarios' excuses were used to fuel the fear porn in the MSM while providing politicians with a 'scientific'e excuse for doing what they did.
If Sir (now Lord) Vallance had provided a 'scenario' in which he'd not made up that curve in the chart printed above but just drawn a line from the 20.-27th Sept, he'd have been practically 'prediction' the development of actual cases as shown in the orange line. So he missed out on being a 'Hero' for scientific modellers ... shame, innit ...
One could really add to the confusion by discussing the difference between a “prediction” and a “forecast”. Some fields use them interchangeably, others will differentiate them.
Thank you for continuous eye openers. There are doctors and scientists around the world who have learned through research or observation that these shots are dangerous and have faulty risk benefit statistical information. I’m sure there are many many more but they see what has happened to others that were brave and spoke out ergo have stayed quiet. Even in my own situation, doctors I’ve seen through being injured are aware because of the uptick in injured patients but they all say they can’t do anything. The pharmaceutical industry has great wealth, power and influence. I don’t know if it’s worth all the doctors going solo with their info, form a collaboration as an entity of strength. The U.K has Angus Delgleish, Aseem Maholtra, Neil Fenton and I’m sure others. Maybe form a group in each country. The groups have meetings about strategies. I know I’m being optimistic and perhaps naive but I hate that pharma and their acolytes can seek and destroy those who dare speak out. Look what’s happening to Dr. Phillip Buckhaults, Kevin McKerran, Jay Bhattacharya, Bryam Bridle, David Spiecher, Jessica Rose, Martin Kulldorff, Tom Jefferson, Carl Heneghan and more. Pharma can zero in on one easily but a group maybe a little more difficult.
Step back one. If Sir/Lord Vallance had listened to the clinical arguments that considered the severe consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection (aka Covid-19) were due to a cytokine storm; that such a storm was precipitated by an immune response to the spike protein; and that the "vaccines" made the body produce selfsame spike protein, would it not become immediately apparent that vaccines could not prevent Covid-19 but might be equally good as the infection itself in producing it? In other words, vaccinating to prevent serious illness is an oxymoron. Any scenarios/prophesies/guesses become irrelevant.
Vallance’s graph was the most unscientific twaddle I have ever seen. “Cases doubled over the last five days - if it continues at that rate, it will hit 50,000 a day by the end of November”, or words to that effect. Why stop there, Sir Patrick? Ten days more, and it would be 200,000 cases a day. And by the end of January, the number of daily cases would exceed the UK population.
I can think of only 2 explanations for such a presentation:
1. Vallance suffers from dyscalculia
2. He was deliberately trying to “scare the pants” off the British people, to use a Hancockism.
If 1, he should be admired for what he has achieved in his professional life, but kept well away from public discourse and decision-making. If 2, he should be barred from public office and have his peerage rescinded.
"2. He was deliberately trying to “scare the pants” off the British people, to use a Hancockism."
if you have a tin-foil hat, you could believe he was put into place two years earlier for a purpose; some crazy souls see planning going back 3-4 yrs
Mathematical modelling in epidemiology does not have the long-standing relationship that it does in the physical sciences and engineering. So, I’m not surprised at the (many) abuses that have occurred. As someone who periodically uses mathematical models, the failure in epidemic predictions/scenarios/forecasts is not a new problem. For me, modelling claims made by decision-makers have never possessed any credibility; it’s too easy for major misunderstandings to occur, by both modellers and model consumers. Releasing simulation results to the public -- in particular -- should be avoided at all costs.
thank you very much David
Vallance came to my attention when he said on MSM that the only way to salvation lay in vaccination - because unfortunately antibody levels dropped alarmingly after infection/recovery from the new, novel and deadly disease.
What to believe? Even O level biology teaches (maybe taught) that antibody levels always drop after dealing with viral infection.
The same man also became alarmed that more than 50% of EFL footballers were reluctant to get jabbed, not setting a good example you see - and he gave them and the PFA a special talk - pour encourager les autres.
Consider since the "vaccine roll out" how many professional footballers are succumbing to injuries (never mind collapsing) and taking longer to recover, micro clots anyone?
The medics/insurers at the clubs know the medical history of their players inside out. They simply don't know the cause of the increase... It would though be very interesting to know how many "excess injuries" are prevalent amongst players who have been jabbed.
Apologies for going off topic, Vallance apart. I've raised this question before but Omerta rules.
"Apologies for going off topic,"
No John; everything is on topic; great to see the participation and interaction here; very heartening
to injuries (never mind collapsing) and taking longer to recover, micro clots anyone?"
indeed; so many injured; footballers are so prominent when they collapse though; quiet folks, in their 30s; dying at home are just "baffling"
"‘They will make assumptions about vaccine effectiveness, they will model different levels of viral transmission, mixing patterns and different levels of disease severity. The range of assumptions modelled can be very broad,’ he said."
=
........ here are some numbers I just made up ........
"From 2012 to 2018, (Patrick Vallence) was President of Research and Development (R&D) at the global pharmaceutical company GlaxoSmithKline (GSK)." Wikipedia
"..... GSK angles to position itself as the world’s “leading vaccines company” over next decade........ Shingles vaccine Shingrix currently forms GSK’s “crown jewel” in those efforts, but the company is also banking on boosted sales from its meningitis franchise, and its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) contender RSVPreF3 recently turned out strong phase 3 results, putting it [neck-and-neck](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gsk-hits-back-high-stakes-rsv-vaccine-game-posting-phase-3-data-suggest-it-has-edge-pfizer) with a would-be rival from Pfizer (2022.)"
https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/gsk-shuffles-c-suite-and-streamlines-businesses-vaccines-chief-connor-heads-exit
Here in Australia, a number of migratory birds (Latham's Snipe) recently flew in from Japan. From a few scattered early arrivals, the numbers increased, and the rate of increase increased, over the next couple weeks. Alarmed, the modellers got out their Excel spreadsheets. They concluded that there was a rapidly-escalating snipe invasion, and that our entire country was under threat. It was calculated that the vast number of bird droppings would overwhelm the municipal waste disposal systems, destroy waterways and make roads impassable, leading to food shortages and epidemic diseases. The modellers' logic was impeccable. The only problem was, that they knew nothing whatsoever about the actual behaviour patterns of migratory birds.
The Covid years (2020-2923) were a stress test for modern democratic governments. Confusion about models, scenarios, forecasts, and predictions was repeated daily, week after week. The sky is falling – close the schools! During the panic, politicians and their advisors seemed unable to learn anything. As one of the geezers pointed out, in 2020 in Italy, after increasing, cases fell off in the way Farr described in 1840. The panic also revealed the destructive force of media hysteria. Thousands became experts in respiratory illness. Sociologists joined the chorus. The confusion over scenarios, models, computer models, predictions, and forecasts is crucial to a culture adverse to evidence and measurement. The facts can be anything you want to use in your scenario, model, and forecast. Well, it wasn’t a prediction; it was a scenario. Whatever, it’s a crisis, and you must do what we tell you. Accountability is impossible without agreement about the evidence. No agreement, no evidence. The confusion is the point.
It used to be that graph was a projection not a prediction- now it is a scenario. Is that the same as a projection?
"graph was a projection not a prediction- now it is a scenario."
perhaps their minds worked endlessly though stages
till we get to "the graph is a certainty": trust me, I am a $cienti$t
The best bit is when they changed the definitions of things like vaccination and immunity- that way they got to keep the same words but change the meaning which was cunning.
Or when they crucified Bhattacharya, Gupta and Kulldorf for talking about herd immunity…but then when they wanted people to believe there was a threshold of population vaccination above which people could consider themselves ‘safe’ and ‘the rules’ eased, they talked of ‘population immunity’ which was the same thing as herd immunity but in people.
well said Helen; we must not let folks forget; you say all this very well
changing the definition of "vaccines" to mean untested, experimental gene-encoding therapy; language endlessly changed as Orwell wrote about so long ago; but so entirely of today ...........
all the deliberate wickedness that was perpetrated; I see Jay B nominated for a post in a new administration; we do hope that eventuates;
It's soon to be revenge time. Happy new year
Like many of your posts, this is an incisive analysis and critique. Thank for the work you do! Please keep it up.
William Briggs pointed out that the results of modelling are dependant on the assumptions used in the model.
If I remember in covid a modeller claimed to have been instructed to identify the worst that could happen not a range!