Recent Non-Covid Excess Mortality. Too much of a bad thing?

This work suggests estimates of non-Covid excess mortality calculated using historic averages lead to 50 to 100% higher estimates than methods incorporating trends.

Excess mortality is a concept that represents the difference between observed mortality and the mortality we would expect to see under ‘normal’ conditions. 

For example, the current excess deaths in week 37 reported by the ONS in England and Wales are 10.4% above the average.

As we have shown, there have been reports of significant non-Covid excess mortal…