Smokescreen 14

The ultimate smokescreen - the winter crisis

The winter crisis? A smokescreen? Have you addled your brains?

Wait, let us explain.

In our Smokescreen series, we have examined the evidence for the role of respiratory viruses (RV) in the UK’s yearly recurring NHS winter crisis.

The decision to give RVs centre stage in the clockwork-like crisis is not ours. It’s been a recurring theme by politicos and media of all kinds for the last 25 years.

We acknowledge that winter excess activity and mortality are well-established facts. The role of RVs is probably important, but no government whose health services are affected by the crisis is seriously analysing events, conducting surveillance, trying to understand what is going on, or formulating credible plans to look after its people. No one is seriously studying influenza transmission, for example, as we will show.

The winter crisis serves as an excuse and a smokescreen to conceal a deeply dysfunctional system. It promotes highly dubious interventions and attempts to control people’s behaviour under the pretence of “follow these instructions if you want to avoid negative consequences, which could be deadly. So, comply with what we say.”

We have shown the confusion between the F word “flu” and influenza, the poverty of data and studies on its nature and transmission and the rarity of deaths directly attributable to influenza.

(See Smokescreens - Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4 and Part 5)

We have also discussed several government plans, some implemented, some not. Neither seems to make any difference to the outcome.

We have documented the panic-like reactions and dire predictions of last year’s “superflu”, with headlines dominated by very senior folk who could not even be bothered to look at their own data.

If you look at the evidence we presented, the viral respiratory disease narrative is deliberately inflated, muddied but not studied for what it is.

As we pointed out in the first Smokescreen post, excess winter mortality is a documented fact dating back to the 17th century and was studied in detail at the macro level in Victorian times.

As days get shorter, light fades, temperatures drop, humidity rises, and fears, real or perceived, are heightened. More people die in the winter months than in other months. This is a fact. Those who die tend to be those who have multiple chronic conditions, and it is probable that catching one or more viral infections tips the balance.

It is also well known that respiratory viruses tend to circulate and transmit more frequently during the winter months.

However, within the narrative of the winter crisis, the question we ask is, where are these balance-tipping infections caught? Where are they identified, and how are they transmitted? Here’s where the government narrative gets murky, as you will see in the next post, the 15th of the series.

This post was written by two old geezers who have weathered lots of crises.