The excess deaths series - an introduction

Since we started our Substack, readers will be aware of the need for an investigation to understand what is going on with deaths.

Trust evidence kicked off in August 2022 with a post called Why it's time to Investigate Excess Deaths in England and Wales, reporting an unexplained excess death rate of 18 per cent.  A post that was opened and read at least 20 thousand times; it was followed by a further post pointing to an excess death rate of 14 percent, and then at regular intervals, 35 other posts on the same topic. Yes,  we know what your thinking - we’re fixated on excess deaths. 

Largely to call governments’ attention to the topic (and it’s not just a UK problem). We tried using irony, suggesting excess summer deaths were not worth investigating as with open windows, problems fly away; we reported Australia having the same problem, pointed out unexplained anomalies in pan-European data reporting, together with mainstream media, we questioned anyone’s commitment to finding an answer and kept being happily ignored by governments. We pointed to excess drinking and co-infections as possible causes, but being a complex problem, we had the impression that governments did not want to look into the issues. No surprise here, then.

A proper independent investigation was hindered by the BBC jumping to conclusions on the basis of experts' opinions and the now ever-present use of poor science. The Chief Medical Officer’s “independent” technical report attributed the excess to statin starvation and blood pressure monitoring during lockdowns - if only.  Both were evidence-free assertions and quickly debunked by MPs and Members of the House of Lords Parliamentary questions, which were brushed off by the usual - you guessed right - F&C words argument plus some more waffle - there’s no need to worry - apart from the slight problem with deaths - the Government is keeping an eye on your health, have no fear.

Well, folks, we have no intention of moving on. We’ve decided to slowly dig into the data (yes, we’re really navvies at heart) and present periodic updates of excess deaths by year and by age groups: up to 1 year, 1 to 14, 14 to 44, 45 to 64, 65 to 74, 75 to 84 and 85 and above. 

Our posts will follow a standard format with the source of data, the period covered, and age groups (two groups per post), comparing back to 2017, presenting the data both as Nightingale graphs (the ones that look like a spider’s web) and cumulative lines, coloured by year. 

The figures will also be in the frames with small bar charts, so you’ll get four presentations of the same data, both graphic and numerical. We will probably repeat the posts every 2-3 months so you can all see what is going on or when a signal across these ages emerges. 

As excess deaths are a complex phenomenon, we will not offer any explanations which require investigation way beyond our current resources. 

We will keep excess deaths in the public eye until someone starts taking it seriously.