Update on excess deaths and how to measure them

The messiness of the current approach leads to confusion and, at times, over-interpretation of the true excess.

In the week ending 20 December 2023 (Week 3), 15,804 deaths were registered in England and Wales. An increase of 11 per cent compared to the 5-year average (2017 to 2019 and 2021, 2022). 

However, we wrote previously about the problems of using five-year averages to calculate excess deaths. An issue that warrants asking what is the true excess and what should be the baseline measure for comparisons. 

With an increasing trend, the historic average will underestimate expected deaths and overestimate excess deaths. Increases in population size and an increasingly ageing population mean more people die every year in the UK. 

Failure to consider this was a problem for estimates in the first year of the pandemic. The problem was exacerbated further in 2022 by the ONS decision not to include death totals from 2020 in the average in favour of more historical data. 

This is a difficult concept to grasp, but it is analogous to budgeting for your weekly shopping bill using your average shopping bill…