Update on excess deaths and how to measure them

The messiness of the current approach leads to confusion and, at times, over-interpretation of the true excess.

In the week ending 20 December 2023 (Week 3), 15,804 deaths were registered in England and Wales. An increase of 11 per cent compared to the 5-year average (2017 to 2019 and 2021, 2022). 

However, we wrote previously about the problems of using five-year averages to calculate excess deaths. An issue that warrants asking what is the true excess and what s…