"We present a stochastic metapopulation transmission model that simulates the spread of H5N1 avian influenza through individual dairy cows in 35,974 dairy herds in the continental United States."
TRANSLATION: ...... here are some numbers we just made up ..............
hopefully those making up the current US administration will be a little more wary of the wily ways of our boy, Fergie .......
What they don't tell you is that you can usually fit any number of models to the same data set, and it is peculiarly difficult to decide which of these is the best "fit" to the data. The point is made quite explicit in Ferguson's famous March 2020 paper. The truth is, unless you know what's going on, don't expect a model to tell you (that's why I gave up on the business).
Oh dear; this is awfully triggering; terrible flashbacks to 5yrs ago; Fergie was one of many carefully coordinated assaults on people as the Great Madness was rolled out; a key weapon, like laying down cards at poker; fantastical numbers; crazed predictions; I guess you call it "shock and awe": so many totally taken in; he is a $cienti$t .. he gets 400 hundred million quid from the Billy Goat; he must be telling the truth .......
Me thinks meat is the next target now after the chooks! This bird flu appears to have a propensity to attack fowl and now cows. Foul not fair. It fits nicely on the agenda for us to be eating bugs, plant food, worms etc…..oh, lots of peas too. …..I heard there’s an enormous amount of land owned by one individual devoted to produce enough pea protein to keep us all going until we become surplus to requirements. Won’t belong for any of the elderly then will it…..they can just pee off. Or am I just being a silly old conspiracy theorist……
Why do I think that there will shortly be a campaign for the mass vaccination of all US cattle against avian 'flu? Somehow the scenario where we end up with all animals being vaccinated against every known possible pathogen, in the same way every person from cradle to birth is expected to be, has become the stuff of nightmares again. All predicated on the model's predictions being true, reliable and beyond question, of course!
well it could have been USA_ID till very recently; but I understand those cheques are now bouncing ..... I wonder why .. must be multiple other ways to furtively funnel cash to him .
I don't like and don't trust mathematical modeling. There are too many simplified assumptions and extreme lack of knowledge for the model to come up with anything reasonable and useful.
Good Grief! Priontastic confabulations by Foot in mouth prognosticator, Ferguson!
This is surely a win-win for all those lobbying for cutting down meat consumption and plugging lab-made myoma-burgers,and the avian flu vax manufacturers!
Surely it's time for a free subscription to TTE for Musk, Trumps new scientific advisor!
there was that wonderful songs so many bands did "Bring it on home"
for our boy, Fergie, this must be "bringing it on back home":
this must be the ultimate wet dream; returning to the scenes of his earlier triumphs (ruthlessly urging on the killing of endless numbers of healthy cattle; so much destruction) and blending it with "scary, scary, run, run the virus is going to kill you all .."
to be able to blend both into a new crazed scheme; what a wet dream for him
"We present a stochastic metapopulation transmission model that simulates the spread of H5N1 avian influenza through individual dairy cows in 35,974 dairy herds in the continental United States."
TRANSLATION: ...... here are some numbers we just made up ..............
hopefully those making up the current US administration will be a little more wary of the wily ways of our boy, Fergie .......
Given the last-named author, the paper is 100% certain (that's a _safe and effective_ 100%) to be... total rubbish.
The man was generous with his numbers and that's the thanks he gets !!!! (sarc)
What they don't tell you is that you can usually fit any number of models to the same data set, and it is peculiarly difficult to decide which of these is the best "fit" to the data. The point is made quite explicit in Ferguson's famous March 2020 paper. The truth is, unless you know what's going on, don't expect a model to tell you (that's why I gave up on the business).
Oh dear; this is awfully triggering; terrible flashbacks to 5yrs ago; Fergie was one of many carefully coordinated assaults on people as the Great Madness was rolled out; a key weapon, like laying down cards at poker; fantastical numbers; crazed predictions; I guess you call it "shock and awe": so many totally taken in; he is a $cienti$t .. he gets 400 hundred million quid from the Billy Goat; he must be telling the truth .......
Another planned death campaign underpinned by 100% reliable modelling ... methinks?
Me thinks meat is the next target now after the chooks! This bird flu appears to have a propensity to attack fowl and now cows. Foul not fair. It fits nicely on the agenda for us to be eating bugs, plant food, worms etc…..oh, lots of peas too. …..I heard there’s an enormous amount of land owned by one individual devoted to produce enough pea protein to keep us all going until we become surplus to requirements. Won’t belong for any of the elderly then will it…..they can just pee off. Or am I just being a silly old conspiracy theorist……
Exactly! Especially when one looks at the funding list....
Why do I think that there will shortly be a campaign for the mass vaccination of all US cattle against avian 'flu? Somehow the scenario where we end up with all animals being vaccinated against every known possible pathogen, in the same way every person from cradle to birth is expected to be, has become the stuff of nightmares again. All predicated on the model's predictions being true, reliable and beyond question, of course!
Oh Lord; muddlers, meddlers ........ and straight out crazed lunatics; this guy still pursuing his ways; he has been at this now for 15 years?
25 at least.
and he just goes on and on ......
....being wrong .
Who still pays for his opinions?
well it could have been USA_ID till very recently; but I understand those cheques are now bouncing ..... I wonder why .. must be multiple other ways to furtively funnel cash to him .
Remember Foot & Mouth. That’s all you need to know.
I don't like and don't trust mathematical modeling. There are too many simplified assumptions and extreme lack of knowledge for the model to come up with anything reasonable and useful.
I'm waiting for foot and mouth transmission in chickens.
😮 Oh dear. More model mayhem.
I like the brazen way Ferguson references, reference 20, his already discredited laughable model of Foot and Mouth!
Good Grief! Priontastic confabulations by Foot in mouth prognosticator, Ferguson!
This is surely a win-win for all those lobbying for cutting down meat consumption and plugging lab-made myoma-burgers,and the avian flu vax manufacturers!
Surely it's time for a free subscription to TTE for Musk, Trumps new scientific advisor!
Is it correct, that the last name cited, not the first, is the lead author? Funded by UKHSA, Wellcome Trust and some other phillanthropists.
there was that wonderful songs so many bands did "Bring it on home"
for our boy, Fergie, this must be "bringing it on back home":
this must be the ultimate wet dream; returning to the scenes of his earlier triumphs (ruthlessly urging on the killing of endless numbers of healthy cattle; so much destruction) and blending it with "scary, scary, run, run the virus is going to kill you all .."
to be able to blend both into a new crazed scheme; what a wet dream for him
I'd be quite happy for some, or all, of these authors to lock themselves down, for the good of the world.
I have a much more devious plan for some of these authors and I’m afraid it would be much more Draconian than locking them down!