It’s possible Keith yes. One of the problems with choosing denominators are the short term changes in the population. For example I read in the Times this morning that an estimated 700K refugees arrived in the UK in 22. However we cannot find further details as to their age, gender etc. But if it’s in the Times it’s got to be true!!!

Expand full comment


My guess is that a huge increase in exposure to electromagnetic radiation as a result of the digital revolution is causing a fall in spermatozoa concentration. Couple this with a massively over medicated society and a increases in processed food consumption and we have a toxic soup.

Expand full comment

I would have thought with everyone locked up there would have been more births not less in 2020/2021. Does this mean people were extra cautious, didn't partake or did something reduce fertility, increase miscarriage? I also read (although I can't verify the facts) that infants who were born alive but died quickly after birth were classified as stillborn (no autopsy).

Expand full comment

I'm struck that while population size is rising the number of live births falls.

Anyway isn't it better to look at changing age standardised mortality rates - as you have done here -rather than "excess death rates" ? (although I understand there is some doubt about the size of the population)

My understanding is that the rise in age standardised mortality rate was less significant (in the pandemic) than portrayed in our media. But the rate is rising again?

Expand full comment


Interestingly the infant mortality in Estonia appears to be the lowest in Europe (1.6 per 1000). Average in EU27 was 3.4.

Expand full comment