The Serendipity of Models and H5 Avian Influenza Vaccine Procurement

RIP the taxpayer

It’s incredible how sometimes stories have their own legs; they grow and twist and turn.

We summarised our puny inquiries on the information held by EMA, UKHSA and MHRA on the H5 Avian Influenza Vaccine(s): The one the UKHSA purchased 5,147,670 doses of from CSL/Sequirus Ltd. We even got our hands on the (redacted) contract.

Summary of the UKHSA and MHRA information received about the H5 Avian Influenza Vaccine.

New Zealand’s MEDSAFE regulators have probably trained the UKHSA and the MHRA in body swerves; they must have a contract with the All Blacks. But we will keep digging and update the post as more buzz-off answers come in.

As we finished the latest piece, we encountered the latest mathematical model.

Why did we call on our readers

Opening up a new scenario. As we wondered why on earth the British taxpayer would want to (subconsciously) spend megabucks on untested vaccines for a threat that does not exist, the model came from the sky to enlighten us. It was posted on a preprint server on 28 January 2025.

The story is much bigger than that of poor old Blightly Albion. It goes something like this:

Deadly avian influenza is coming for you (since 1996) but not just for you, it’s after your cows and chickens. So you either kill them all a la 2000 Foot and Mouth Disease or you can do something else: vaccinate them, and while you’re at it, yourself.

Please wait a minute; this is not possible for animals. We thought there were no vaccines.

WRONG WRONG WRONG again!

You can use or will be able to use this for chickens (see here)

It got a positive opinion on the 12 February 2025 from EMA.

The Americans are also in on the act, ensuring an H5N1 vaccine for dairy cattle.

This is a press release, so it’s science, of course. It has a backup story dated 27 February.

The coordination of these approvals, as the British magician-entertainer Paul Daniels used to say, is magic!

The WHO is also on the job with a new initiative: an advanced mRNA vaccine against H5N1. They ensure they ‘play a vital role in this effort towards global pandemic preparedness.’

However, when you think about it, it’s all so predictable.

This post was written by two old geezers who do not believe in coincidence and would like to thank our reader Myra for assistance and wisdom. We declare we do not hold cats, raccoons, bears, or foxes but have a dog each.